January 2026 - Research Updates and News, 2025 Enrollment Trends, GenAI in Education, and More

January 2026, Eye on Research

Commentary

Welcome to 2026. After more than a decade in this role, I recognize more clearly than ever that effective research in our field isn't something done about practitioners—it emerges from and with them. I'm privileged to facilitate this work, but you make it possible. Your willingness to share your experiences, challenges, and innovations transforms individual observations into collective knowledge that strengthens our entire profession.

This year promises to bring new challenges and opportunities. The landscape of higher education continues to evolve; the issues you navigate daily deserve careful examination through research. That's where you come in.

I'm eager to hear what's on your mind. What questions keep you up at night? What trends are you observing that deserve deeper investigation? What data would help you make better decisions for the learners and institutions you serve?

Your research ideas matter. They ensure our work remains grounded in the real challenges facing enrollment-management and academic-services professionals. Whether it's a fully formed proposal or just a recurring question you think others might share, I want to hear about it.

Please reach out to me at wendyk@aacrao.org with your ideas, questions, or suggestions. The best research emerges from conversations among colleagues.

Here's to a productive, insightful 2026.

AACRAO Research Updates 

Before we turn our attention to what's ahead, I want to take a moment to share the research portfolio AACRAO completed in 2025. All reports are available on the AACRAO Research webpage and the LEARN Commission webpage.

Reports and Papers

We released nine research projects during 2025.

• High-School Dual Enrollment Benchmark Report (with NACEP): This report updated our 2016 benchmark with comprehensive data on institutional practices. Research revealed 82% of public-school learners now attend high schools offering dual enrollment; nearly 2.5 million learners participate.
• Chief Admissions Officer Career Profile: The fifth in our career-profile series tracked the evolving scope of admissions leadership.
• Four 60-Second Surveys: Admissions Staffing, Community College Enrollment Management, Annual Scheduling, and Precollege Programs provided insights into emerging practices and persistent challenges in these areas. The Precollege Programs report will be released in mid-February.
• Two LEARN Commission Green Papers: One paper examined high-school dual-enrollment credit mobility, and another explored AI applications in credit evaluation.
• Blueprint White Paper: This capstone synthesized over a decade of credit-mobility research. Data demonstrated that core barriers are not technological but operational. Research indicated that institutions manually process electronic transcripts, lack comprehensive articulation rules, and struggle with fragmented systems.

Looking Ahead–Surveys Planned for 2026

• We will deploy a survey on transcript practices in early spring. Results will support the updating of the 2020 AACRAO Academic Records and Transcript Guide.
• The Chief Enrollment Management Officer Career Profile survey will be deployed in late spring/early summer.
We have a 60-second survey planned on the amount of time required to complete a transcript evaluation and share a degree audit with a new learner. We will alert you when a date is determined.

Current Higher-Education Research and Related Topics

California College Career Support: What Learners Actually Experience

A new report from California Completes surveyed over 5,000 California learners in college and found major gaps in career prep. Many learners struggle to get timely guidance and hands-on work experience that could help them land meaningful jobs and build economic stability. Research examined whether colleges are setting learners up for career success and where the system needs improvement. A useful infographic can be found here.

• Colleges are a learner’s go-to for career advice. However, support is hit-or-miss, often shows up too late (sometimes after they've already graduated), and leaves many learners wanting more.
• Learners have a hard time gaining real-world experience in college. This is due to demanding course schedules and a lack of clear opportunities.
• Career satisfaction among recent graduates is low. Less than 50% of recent graduates are satisfied with their first job or where their career seems to be headed.

Provost Perspectives: Navigating Resources, Learner Well-Being, and Changes in Higher Education

A 2025 survey (download required) of 478 college provosts conducted by Inside Higher Ed, and supported by Honorlock, reveals that provosts find their work rewarding but resource-constrained. Most are confident about their institution’s academic quality but face mounting challenges around learner mental health, shifting DEI policies, federal funding cuts, and emerging AI concerns. Research examines how academic leaders balance core educational missions with external pressures and internal needs across different types of institutions. Key findings include the following.

• Nearly all provosts are satisfied with their undergraduate programs. Most have strong presidential support; however, only 29% consistently have the resources to implement new initiatives. Fifty percent believe their role is more about firefighting than strategic planning.
• Learner mental health tops the list of campus safety threats. This was cited by 80% of provosts, but only 40% see undergraduate well-being improving. Issues, such as food insecurity, are especially pressing at community colleges.
• Provosts are dealing with significant shifts. Fifty-six percent report federal-funding declines, and 40% have scaled back faculty DEI efforts (especially in the South). Most are exploring AI integration in curricula; however, only 14% have solid governance policies in place.

Fall 2025 Enrollment: Community Colleges Lead Growth; Graduate Programs Plateau

The National Student Clearinghouse's Final Fall Enrollment Trends report for 2025 shows total postsecondary enrollment reached 19.4 million learners (up 1%). Undergraduate growth was primarily driven by community colleges. Graduate enrollment stayed flat, and private institutions saw declines. This comprehensive report covers 97% of U.S. Title IV degree-granting institutions and tracks enrollment patterns across credential types, learner demographics, institutional sectors, and academic programs.

• Community colleges are the growth engine. Undergraduate enrollment was up 3%. Public 4-year schools grew more modestly at 1.4%. Private nonprofit and for-profit 4-year institutions lost learners (down 1.6% and 2%, respectively).
• Certificate and associate-degree programs outpace bachelor's programs in growth. Community-college-certificate enrollments totalled 752,000 learners—a 28.3% increase since 2021.
• International graduate-learner enrollment dropped significantly. It was down 5.9% and lost 10,000 learners after years of increases. Undergraduate international growth slowed to 3.2% compared to 2024's 8.4%. Computer-science-program enrollment also declined.

GenAI in Education: Promise and Pitfalls, According to OECD's 2026 Outlook

The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) Digital Education Outlook 2026 examines how generative AI is reshaping education globally. It found that GenAI can personalize learning, improve teaching efficiency, and streamline administrative work. However, overreliance risks reducing the deep thinking and engagement that lead to real understanding. The report synthesizes current research and expert analysis to map out where GenAI works well and how education systems can adopt it responsibly.

• GenAI shows potential for tutoring through flexible conversations and Socratic questioning, supporting collaborative learning and creativity (when used thoughtfully). It may help bridge digital divides in low-resource areas, but learners who lean on it too heavily for quick answers do not experience the mental effort that builds genuine learning.
• The best approach for teachers isn't replacement by AI but "augmentation." Using GenAI in an iterative back-and-forth can help critique and refine a learner’s work. This can preserve professional judgment and boost instructional quality, though most current tools are generic chatbots that do not align with actual curricula.
• GenAI is streamlining administrative tasks, such as course-equivalency mapping, and generating assessment items at scale. It is changing education research through faster hypothesis testing and synthetic datasets. The key challenge is ensuring it becomes a learning partner that develops critical thinking, rather than a shortcut that makes a learner passive.

New publications from the Community College Research Center

The Community College Research Center (CCRC) has released several new publications recently. These include:

• A chapter on community-college finance in the National Bureau of Economic Research’s book Financing Institutions of Higher Education.
• A practice guide on improving post-completion outcomes for community colleges.
• Two updated fact sheets on the missions of community colleges and community college transfer.

AI's Promise for Higher Ed: Optimism Meets Reality

A report from Salesforce explores how colleges and universities are leveraging AI to tackle rising learner expectations and operational pressures, with staff seeing potential for productivity gains and more personalized learner experiences. However, successful transformation hinges on moving beyond isolated pilots to institution-wide strategies backed by leadership commitment and comprehensive staff training.

• Learners report good, but not great, experiences. They are using AI throughout their educational journey. Learners welcome it for admissions, career prep, and support services, though less so for well-being.
• Staff members feel optimistic about AI freeing up time for meaningful work and deeper learner connections. But staff believe they also need better institutional communication and upskilling to handle the pressure of performing in this new environment.
• Institutions making progress share three traits. They demonstrate committed leadership, teams that feel empowered to experiment, and a willingness to test and learn, rather than perfect things before launching.