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Both an art and a science, enrollment projections have become a major component to effective college and university fiscal planning. With stagnant or declining state budget support for public higher education along with an increasing emphasis on revenue generation, never before has predicting the size of an entering class become more imperative. Too few students and budgets are sure to suffer; too many students and residence halls will be overflowing. This article presents several approaches to manage enrollment data for an entering class and predict enrollment yield. By examining past yield behavior coupled with trend and conversion data, a college or university will be better positioned to provide exceptionally accurate enrollment forecasts to senior administration. The authors provide pragmatic examples to empirically engage and data mine applicant pools for both first year and transfer populations in order to predict yield conversion with a greater level of confidence. Special attention will be placed on describing different statistical and mathematical techniques to predict enrollment.

Author(s)

Randall Langston serves as the assistant vice president for enrollment management at the College of Brockport, State University of New York, where he provides leadership to the Admissions, Financial Aid, Registration & Records, and the Academic Advisement areas within the Enrollment Management and Student Affairs division. In his role at Brockport, Randall is responsible for initiating strategic high-level discussion surrounding campus-wide enrollment management issues, preparing enrollment and revenue projections collaboratively with other departments on campus, interpreting predictive modeling, and collaborating on institutional financial aid leveraging strategy for new and continuing students. Randall earned a bachelor’s degree in 1994 from Sam Houston State University in Texas and a master’s degree from Texas Tech University in 1995.

Robert Wyant is an Associate Director of Admissions in the Office of Undergraduate Admissions at The College at Brockport–State University of New York. He is a member of the Undergraduate Admissions senior leadership team and provides forecasting data and other weekly enrollment reports to campus administration. He earned a bachelor’s degree in Business from the University of Pittsburgh in 2006 and a master’s degree in higher ­education and enrollment management from Walden University in 2014.

Jamie Scheid is an Enrollment Analyst in the Office of Research, Analysis and Planning at The College at Brockport–State University of New York. He is involved with analyzing data related to recruitment and retention and has extensive experience with financial aid leveraging and predictive modeling. He earned a bachelor’s degree in mathematics from Cedarville University in 2001 and a master’s degree in applied statistics from Rochester Institute of Technology in 2005.

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