October 2025, Eye on Research
Commentary
As we settle into fall, I find myself reflecting on a question that's been at the heart of much of AACRAO's recent work. When do we tell transfer learners if their earned credits will transfer and how they will apply to their degree program?
It might seem like a straightforward operational question, but it’s more complicated. Decision-making research and transfer student research suggest the timing of release of this information may shape how a learner makes one of the most consequential decisions of their educational journey—where to transfer.
Ellucian's 2025 Student Voice Report reaffirmed what we have learned from research over the last several years. Learners want more information sooner about transfer. In Ellucian’s report, 82% of prospective transfer learners expressed uncertainty about how their credits would be recognized at a potential institution. Among learners who have stopped out, 60% indicated they would probably return if their institution proactively provided clear program-completion details. However, only 22% of learners reported having a clear understanding of their remaining credit requirements.
These aren't just statistics about credit loss. They are data points about decision-making under conditions of profound uncertainty.
Judgment and decision-making (JDM) theory and research offer insights into the impact of missing information on the quality of a person’s decision-making. When people make decisions with incomplete information, two cognitive phenomena may emerge. Omission neglect is the tendency to overlook missing information. This can lead us to form judgments based on the limited evidence we have available, which may result in a decision we later regret. The compromise effect may also come into play. When facing uncertainty, we may gravitate toward "middle ground" options that feel safer, rather than choices that truly fit our needs.
For a prospective transfer learner, it is not possible to holistically compare institutions or even evaluate a single institution without complete credit evaluations and an analysis of the applicability of earned credit to the degree sought. The absence of clear information may derail the transfer process. This is especially true for those with less social capital to interpret institutional signals.
This brings me back to AACRAO's recent work on operational foundations. Our White Paper on learner-centered credit mobility demonstrates that core barriers aren't technological gaps but fundamental operational deficiencies. Many institutions don't complete official credit evaluations or applicability analyses until after a learner has been admitted (not just applied). This means we're asking a learner to make a life-altering decision about where to continue their education without telling them how their previous learning will count.
What if we treated timely, comprehensive credit evaluation and applicability analysis as an essential component of the admissions decision, not a post-admission courtesy?
What might this change mean for the millions of learners navigating transfer and degree-completion pathways?
These and other similar questions are driving our work as we move into another academic year. I hope you'll join us in exploring them.
AACRAO Research Updates
Chief Admissions Officer Career Profile Survey Report
On November 14, 2025, we're releasing the fourth benchmark in our Career Profile Series. The report examines the career trajectories, responsibilities, and professional experiences of chief admissions officers (CAdOs) across the United States.
Today's CAdO operates beyond traditional admissions processing. Fifty-nine percent of chief admissions officers are responsible for strategic-enrollment-management-plan development; 90% oversee comprehensive recruiting and applicant-to-matriculation operations. This expanded scope positions CAdOs as central figures in institutional-enrollment strategy and learner access.
The report offers practical guidance for aspiring and current CAdOs. Watch your inbox for it.
AI in Academic Operations: Between Promise and Practice
Results of the September 2025 60-Second survey will be released on November 18, 2025. The survey examined how institutions are approaching AI integration in academic operations. The survey and report were made possible in part by support from Coursedog.
The report reveals an interesting gap. While 85% of respondents believe AI can improve operational efficiency, only 11% currently use it for academic operations functions. It includes a practical readiness assessment to help institutions evaluate whether they're prepared for AI adoption.
October–Admissions Staffing Survey
This new survey complements our career-profile work by examining how admissions offices are structured and staffed across institutions. We're exploring critical questions about team size, functional responsibilities, organizational models (centralized, decentralized, hybrid), and the challenges an office faces—from recruitment difficulties and high turnover to skills gaps and succession-planning concerns.
The survey also examines emerging workplace dynamics, including remote-work options and how institutions balance operational demands with flexible work arrangements. By understanding staffing patterns—who does the work, how teams are organized, and the types of challenges they face—we can better identify institutional priorities and the support needs of admissions professionals.
This research will provide valuable benchmarking data for institutions assessing their own staffing models. It will also help AACRAO identify where professional development, resources, and advocacy efforts can make the greatest impact.
December–Precollege Program Survey
It's been several years since we last surveyed precollege programs. The landscape has shifted. In December 2025, we're deploying a 60-second survey to capture how institutions currently use precollege programs—from traditional summer experiences to emerging models. Data will provide fresh benchmarks for institutions evaluating or expanding their own precollege offerings.
Current Higher-Education Research and Related Topics
Learner Expectations Are Shifting in Multiple Ways
Ellucian's 2025 Student Voice Report surveyed over 1,500 learners and found they are not turning away from higher education itself. Learners are frustrated by unclear pathways, high costs, and systems that don't connect to real-world career outcomes. Research points to a fundamental shift toward viewing education as a lifelong journey rather than a one-time degree. This means institutions need to rethink how they communicate value, and they will need to design flexible, career-focused programs in the future.
- Cost and clarity are major roadblocks: More than 50% of learners who opt out say affordability is their biggest barrier. Most don't understand how credit transfers work. However, a strong majority of stop-outs would return if they had clearer information about finishing their program.
- Online and flexible learning is the new normal: Nearly 33% of high-school learners plan to complete college entirely online. Most current learners expect to pursue additional credentials throughout their careers.
- Nondegree credentials are gaining traction: Once a learner learns about workforce-aligned programs and alternative credentials, most see them as valuable for career advancement. This is especially true among working adults and those considering a return to education.
Learners Need Support Beyond the Classroom, but They Value Their Education
A new article from Inside Higher Ed regarding their 2025 Student Voice survey found that about 80% of over 5,000 undergraduates rate their education quality as good or excellent, showing strong confidence in what they're learning. However, the real challenges learners face aren't happening in the classroom. Nearly 50% cite financial pressures as their biggest barrier to success, with mental-health struggles and work obligations also ranking high. This highlights how much learners need comprehensive support beyond academics.
- Money worries hit vulnerable groups the hardest: Financial constraints affect 42% of learners, but that jumps to 50% of first-generation learners and 55% of learners who stopped out. Black and Hispanic learners also report higher rates of financial stress.
- Learners want less pressure and more relevance: The top requests for improving academic success are reducing high-stakes exams that make or break a grade and making course content connect better to real-world issues and career paths. However, only 20% of academic leaders say their schools have actually encouraged limiting high-stakes exams.
- Connection matters: With AI reshaping education and some learners feeling increasingly isolated (19% cite lack of belonging as a barrier), there's growing demand for face-to-face interaction, better academic advising, and peer collaboration.
First-Generation Learners Enroll at High Rates but Face Barriers to Completion
Common App's latest research tracking first-generation (first-gen) college learners found that about 90% enroll in college within 6 years of high-school completion, matching peers whose parents have degrees. However, college completion is where things fall apart. Only half of first-gen learners at 4-year schools earn a bachelor's degree within 4 years, compared to 68% of continuing-generation learners. This 18% gap doesn't close, even when learners are given more time to complete their education. Nearly 33% of first-gen learners who don't graduate were enrolled for 4+ years, meaning they invested time and money without attaining a credential.
- The graduation gap isn't just about preparation or money: Even first-gen learners with strong high-school records graduate at lower rates (8-9% gap). First-gen learners who are not limited-income trail their peers by 12%. This demonstrates barriers beyond academics and finances that institutions may need to address.
- Where you go matters for first-gen success: When comparing learners at the same institutions, first-gen learners are still 10% less likely to graduate within 6 years. The gap shrinks at schools that spend more on direct learner instruction and support. This is a 10% drop at high-investment schools versus a 17% drop at lower-investment institutions.
- Many first-gen learners stay but don't finish: Many noncompleting first-gen learners are enrolled for many years. This may mean they're committed and trying hard, but something is breaking down in the system that prevents them from crossing the finish line, despite substantial investment.
Employers See Value in College But Want More Career-Ready Skills
A recent article from Inside Higher Ed examines surveys from the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, DeVry University, and Cengage Group. Data reveal that while employers overwhelmingly believe high-school graduates aren't workforce-ready and current workers lack needed skills, they continue to see postsecondary education as essential for building a prepared workforce. The catch is that employers are increasingly prioritizing hands-on experience and industry credentials alongside degrees. Internships now rank as the top way learners can gain career skills, which ranks above traditional 4-year college programs.
- Credentials and skills matter more than degrees alone: Ninety percent of hiring managers state that trade-school and college graduates with industry certifications are workforce-ready. Seventy-five percent of hiring managers say the same about college graduates without those credentials. Degree requirements have increased as confidence in the degree value to employers has dropped.
- Critical thinking and communication top the wanted list: Nearly all employers prioritize candidates with problem-solving abilities and effective communication skills. Seventy percent believe that durable skills actually determine who gets promoted, not just who gets hired.
- There's a serious skills gap hurting business: Only 38% of hiring managers say it's easy to find candidates with the right skills. Fifty percent report that workers without the necessary skills threaten their company's productivity. Some managers believe they would have to close the company doors without access to skilled talent.