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Article Type

Professional Proficiency

Article Abstract

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Improving student success and degree completion is one of the core principles of strategic enrollment management. To address this principle, institutional data were used to develop a statistical model to identify academically at-risk students. The model employs multiple linear regression techniques to predict students at risk of earning below a 2.0 grade point average (GPA) in their first semester of college. Data analysis from student cohorts starting in the Fall 2007 through Fall 2009 (N = 11,644) identified two groups of students—one predicted to earn less than a 2.0 and the other predicted to earn a 2.0 or higher. The first semester college GPA and retention rates of both groups of students were tracked to examine the accuracy of the model in predicting student success and subsequent retention rates. Multi-year analyses illustrates that the model can be used to identify students who are at risk of earning less than a 2.0 GPA. Additional analysis demonstrates there is a relationship between predicted and actual first semester GPA and retention rates. Since the data used to develop the model are commonly available at most institutions, this study provides a practical approach for the SEM research professional to identify potentially academically at-risk students, which subsequently can be used to assist students and improve student success and degree completion.

Author(s)

Ann M. Gansemer-Topf is an assistant professor of higher education at Iowa State University. Prior to becoming a faculty member she had worked in admissions, institutional research, and academic advising and residence life. She also has significant experience in program evaluation and assessment. Her research interests focus on examining the micro (student) and macro (institutional, state, federal) factors that impact student success. She has her doctoral and master’s degrees from Iowa State University and her bachelor’s degree from Loras College in Dubuque, Iowa.

Jonathan Compton is a senior research analyst in the Office of the Registrar at Iowa State University and is a member of the Enrollment Research Team. In this role, he is responsible for creation of reports, enrollment and course projections, and analysis of data in support of student success initiatives at the university. He has been in his current role for 7 years. He holds a PhD in educational leadership and policy studies from Iowa State University, a master’s degree in teaching English as a second language from Iowa State University, and a bachelor’s degree in English from Bryan College.

Darin Wohlgemuth is the director of assessment and enrollment research for the Division of Student Affairs at Iowa State University. He leads Iowa State’s Enrollment Research Team (ERT) conducting research on a variety of area from strategic recruitment, tuition policy, and student success. Wohlgemuth, along with the ERT, have presented regularly at AACRAO’s Strategic Enrollment Management conference. He has authored and coauthored more than 15 articles and book chapters. He earned his master’s and doctoral degrees in economics from Iowa State University, where his research examined the demand for higher education at the aggregate and individual levels. His has a bachelor’s degree in secondary math education from the University of Kansas and an associate’s degree from Hesston College.

Greg Forbes is the research analyst for the Office of Student Financial Aid at Iowa State University. He provides data, assessment, and research support for financial aid and is a member of the Iowa State University Enrollment Research Team. Greg has 18 years of experience in financial aid serving in a variety of functions including counseling, policy support, and research. He has particular interest in the intersections of financial aid and student success, enrollment management, and student loan debt. Greg received a Master of Public Administration with a focus in higher education from Iowa State University and a bachelor of science from the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign.

Ekaterina (Kate) Ralston is the Assistant Director for Research in Admissions at Iowa State University. Kate provides analytic support to the Office of Admissions as well as contributing to the projects conducted by the Enrollment Research Team. Kate has a doctoral degree in sociology, a master’s in mass communications from Iowa State University, and a bachelor’s in newspaper journalism from Moscow State University, Russia. Her areas of interest include multi-method approaches to data, focusing on quantitative techniques, such as structural equation modeling, longitudinal studies, and interaction analysis.

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