How Does the College Premium Change over a Career?

A new analysis from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis finds that workers with four-year college degrees earn more than workers with only high school diplomas throughout their careers, but the size of the college premium varies depending on how earnings are measured. Using Current Population Survey data from 1975 through 2025, the analysis finds that college graduates initially earn more than twice as much annually as high school graduates, with the annual earnings premium declining to about 1.8 over time; in contrast, the hourly wage premium begins around 1.6 to 1.7 and increases somewhat with experience. The difference is largely attributable to patterns in labor-force participation: college graduates reach high rates of full-time, full-year employment much earlier in their careers, while high school graduates gradually increase their labor-force attachment over several decades. The findings highlight the importance of considering both wages and employment patterns when evaluating the economic value of a college degree.