UK government data released today revealed a 40% year-over-year decline in study visa applications this April, with 8,900 international students applying to study in the UK, compared to 14,800 the previous year.
The decline brings the total number of applicants from January to April this year down by 33% on 2025, as stakeholders warn of worsening headwinds.
“All of this is particularly challenging given that we also know that the refusal rate is higher now than it has been in the past… So, these numbers are optimistic,” Nous Group director Nicholas Dillon commented.
The drop means application levels for the year to April are at their lowest point in five years, down by 11% on 2024 when the government’s dependants ban came into force.
Applications from dependants are 86% lower than December 2023 before the policy came into effect, as continued declines in skilled workers and health care workers set the UK on track for another year of zero or negative net migration.
The figures precede the Home Office’s upcoming release of wider Q1 visa data expected later this month, with stakeholders watching closely whether high visa refusal rates of Q4 2025 will continue.
They come as it emerged a third of English universities faced deficits last year, with a new report from the regulator warning of the risks of “over optimistic forecasting” of student recruitment, highlighting persistent global volatility.
What’s more, it named geopolitical uncertainty, rising UKVI compliance regulations and negative global perceptions of the incoming international student levy as factors contributing to dampening demand, warning of the sector’s continued dependency on international student income.
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