Written by: Heather Zimar
Published: 08/02/2006

Colleges Prepare For Enrollment Decline

Colleges and universities are preparing for a decline in enrollment expected after the last of the “baby boomletters” reach college age by 2009, reports The Philadelphia Inquirer.

The drop, which will mark the first sustained decline in graduating high school students in two decades, is expected to be 4 percent nationwide and sharper in the Northeast, according to the U.S. Department of Education. In Pennsylvania, a 10 percent decline is predicted. New Jersey is expected to see a 2 percent decline, due to larger and growing Latino and Asian student populations. The drop will be particularly significant among white students.

“Some institutions are going to struggle to find students,” said Brian Prescott, a researcher for Western Interstate Commission for Higher Education, a policy organization created by the legislatures of 15 states. It has projected the number of high school graduates across the country since the 1960s.

Prescott said public institutions and elite private universities, which traditionally have many more applicants than available seats, should be able to get through the downturn without problems. “But an average private college in Pennsylvania may not be able to maintain the same level and quality of students, while their competitors in the Southeast or the West may be OK,” he said.

Administrators at Chestnut Hill College, Drexel University, St. Joseph’s University and Harcum College say they are preparing for the upcoming decline by adopting new academic programs and extending recruitment efforts to faster-growing states. “The nice thing is, you can pretty well predict when someone’s going to turn 18, so we’ve been able to systematically look at this and find a way to sustain our numbers beginning in 2009,” said Barbara Elliott, director of enrollment management at the University of the Arts in Philadelphia.

The University of the Arts has seen enrollment grow 60 percent, to 2,300 students expected this fall. Full-time recruiters have been hired in California and Florida—the two states where the supply of high school students is expected to grow or remain steady. The school is also considering hiring a recruiter in Texas.

Drexel University has created a large enough pool of applicants that its leaders say it won’t have trouble. This year, Drexel received about 18,500 applications for 2,300 spots. “We knew there would be a bubble, so the strategy was to increase our applications so much that even if we have a drop there will still be many students for us to choose from,” said Constantine Papadakis, president of the university.

Administrators noted the increasing share of high school graduates who go on to higher education in recent years. If that continues, they say, the total number of applications could slope gently downward rather than plummet.

“The hope and the plan is that everything we’ve done will be able to offset the decline we all know is coming,” Elliott said.

Related Links:

Philadelphia Inquirer
http://www.philly.com/mld/inquirer/15160639.htm